Overview

Seaport Research Partners released a preliminary report on Anthropic ahead of its highly anticipated initial public offering. The firm deferred assigning a formal rating pending the IPO but provided extensive valuation and operational analysis.

Valuation and Outlook

Anthropic is reportedly targeting a valuation range of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Seaport’s discounted cash flow model yields an enterprise value of approximately $1.64 trillion, which the firm believes is attainable if the company maintains aggressive growth through 2028.

Financial Performance

Anthropic’s revenue trajectory has been rapid: the Silicon Valley‑based Public Benefit Corporation grew from zero revenue to $2.2 billion over seven quarters and recorded $11.55 billion in revenue for the second quarter of 2026. Cloud partnerships with Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure contributed 48% of total revenue in the first half of 2026. The firm generated $3.19 million in revenue per employee in the third quarter of 2026, surpassing many mega‑cap technology peers. Its customer base totals 40 million, including 11,900 customers spending over $100,000 annually and 250 customers spending more than $10 million. Customer retention was reported at 900% in 2025. Revenue per dollar of compute expense rose 5.2‑fold between Q1 2025 and Q2 2026, enabling Anthropic to turn a profit in Q2 2026.

Infrastructure Transition – “Anthropic Direct”

Despite achieving profitability in mid‑2026, Seaport projects that Anthropic will return to operating losses in 2027 as it executes a massive infrastructure shift termed “Anthropic Direct.” The initiative involves leasing and managing its own data‑center hardware to reduce reliance on cloud providers that also compete in the AI space. Anthropic has accumulated nearly $800 billion in purchase and lease commitments through 2033, comprising a $161.2 billion equipment lease with Broadcom, a $114.5 billion commitment to Google Cloud, and a $120.5 billion arrangement with a SpaceXAI facility. To finance this transition, the company raised an additional $122 billion in equity and convertible debt in 2026, bringing total primary capital raised to over $141 billion.

Governance Structure

Anthropic operates as a Public Benefit Corporation governed by a Long‑Term Benefit Trust (LTBT) that holds a special Class T share class, granting it the authority to appoint four of the seven board members. The seven co‑founders hold Class F shares that confer 50.1% of common voting rights. Post‑IPO, public investors holding Class A shares will possess only 49.9% of voting rights, effectively leaving permanent control with the LTBT and the founders.

Competitive Landscape and Pricing

The company must defend its approximately 70% gross margins against emerging open‑weight models that operate with 30% margins and set a price floor just above electricity costs. Anthropic has maintained premium pricing, with its frontier Opus 5 model priced at $10 per million tokens, higher than comparable offerings from U.S. rivals.

Risks Highlighted

Seaport flagged significant risks related to Anthropic’s complex governance structure and the intensely competitive AI environment. The transition to self‑managed data centers and the large lease commitments could pressure profitability in 2027.