Apple Intelligence Survey Findings
UBS surveyed more than 7,500 smartphone users across five countries to assess the impact of Apple Intelligence features on iPhone upgrade behavior. The share of respondents who said they would upgrade sooner because of Apple Intelligence fell to approximately 24%, a decline of 500 basis points half‑on‑half, while the proportion indicating the features had no impact rose to roughly 31%, up 300 basis points half‑on‑half.
On broader 12‑month iPhone purchase intent, UBS reported a year‑on‑year increase in the United States to about 20% (up 300 basis points), in the United Kingdom up 600 basis points, and in Germany up 400 basis points. In contrast, intent in China slipped by about 100 basis points to around 15%.
The average age of the iPhone held by respondents decreased modestly to about 22.9 months from the previous survey, remaining near historical highs and indicating limited urgency for upgrades.
Regarding a prospective Apple foldable iPhone, net interest declined by 100 basis points half‑on‑half, yet the favorability spread of an Apple foldable versus a generic foldable smartphone widened by roughly 600 basis points to approximately 48%.
Analyst David Vogt noted that UBS kept its September 2026 quarter and full‑year iPhone forecasts unchanged, maintaining a price target of $296 based on a calendar‑year 2027 earnings‑per‑share estimate of $9.86, which implies a 30‑times multiple.