Overview

J.P. Morgan reiterated its overweight rating on AstraZeneca on 16 September 2026, maintaining a price target of £160, which implies a 19‑times price‑to‑earnings multiple. The broker described the share price of 12,116 pence on 15 September as an attractive entry point for a “strong mid‑term growth story”.

Pipeline Outlook

The analyst highlighted six Phase III readouts scheduled for 2027 that together offer more than $10 billion in risk‑adjusted peak sales, spanning cardiovascular, kidney and oncology indications.

Cardiovascular

  • Laroprovstat, AstraZeneca’s oral PCSK9 inhibitor for cholesterol lowering, will read out in the first quarter of 2027 from the AZURE‑LDL and AZURE‑HeFH trials. J.P. Morgan forecasts a peak risk‑adjusted sales figure of $3.2 billion, which is 30 % above the consensus estimate of $2.4 billion. The drug’s advantage is the lack of a fasting requirement compared with Merck’s rival Lipfendra, despite a smaller LDL‑C reduction in earlier testing.

Kidney‑Focused Combinations (Farxiga)

  • Zibotentan + Farxiga in kidney‑disease patients with high proteinuria is due in the first quarter of 2027. The broker assigns an 80 % probability of success, citing comparable results to an approved Farxiga regimen in earlier studies.
  • Balcinerenone + Farxiga in heart‑failure patients with impaired kidney function is slated for readout in the third quarter of 2027. J.P. Morgan rates its probability of success at 50 %, noting that the drug’s partial mineralocorticoid‑receptor antagonism could dilute the benefit seen with the rival agent finerenone.
  • The two Farxiga combination studies together represent more than $5 billion in peak sales potential.

Oncology

  • Datroway in triple‑negative breast cancer carries an 80 % probability of success and contributes to the oncology sales potential exceeding $5 billion.
  • Puxi‑sam for second‑ or third‑line endometrial cancer also has an 80 % probability of success, with J.P. Morgan noting competitor de‑risking as a positive factor.
  • Saruparib in metastatic castration‑sensitive prostate cancer, with readout expected in the fourth quarter of 2027, is described as having a “reasonably strong” chance of success in patients with HRR gene mutations, who comprise 30 % of the trial population; this de‑risks $3 billion in peak sales.
  • Additional oncology readouts include Datroway in first‑line lung cancer (AVANZAR trial, fourth quarter 2026) and TL07 in 2027, as well as camizestrant data in adjuvant breast cancer from the CAMBRIA‑1 trial (date not specified).

Sales Potential Summary

Summing the individual forecasts yields a risk‑adjusted peak sales potential of over $10 billion: $3.2 bn from laroprovstat, >$5 bn from the two Farxiga combinations, and >$5 bn from the three oncology assets (Datroway, Puxi‑sam, Saruparib).

Analyst Outlook

J.P. Morgan’s view is that these readouts collectively improve confidence in AstraZeneca’s ability to sustain growth beyond 2030, supporting the maintained price target and overweight rating.