Auto1 Group on Positive Catalyst Watch
J.P. Morgan placed Auto1 Group on its Positive Catalyst Watch list on 3 July 2026, maintaining an overweight rating and a December 2027 price target of €37 per share ahead of the company’s second‑quarter results scheduled for 29 July. The broker highlighted that its gross‑profit estimate for the quarter is tracking about 2 % ahead of consensus, forming the primary basis for the watch designation.
The firm forecasts total Q2 unit volumes of 238,000, representing a 19 % year‑on‑year increase and exceeding the consensus estimate of 234,000 units. Within this, merchant units are projected at 205,000 (up 16 %) and retail units at 33,000 (up 39 %). Gross profit for Q2 is forecast at €283 million versus a consensus of €277 million, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to be €57 million, broadly in line with the consensus figure of €57.3 million. Merchant gross profit per unit is estimated at €968 and retail gross profit per unit at €2,565.
For the full year 2027, J.P. Morgan trimmed its adjusted EBITDA estimate by 6 % to €451 million, citing more moderate gross‑profit expectations for the Retail segment; this is the only change in phasing. The FY27 adjusted earnings‑per‑share estimate was cut by 8 % to €1.28. FY26 estimates remain unchanged, and the FY27 figures continue to sit 23 % ahead of consensus.
Analysts visited Auto1 sites in Berlin last week, hosted by Chief Executive Christian Bertermann and Chief Financial Officer Christian Wallentin. The visit covered the Charlottenburg pick‑up and drop‑off location and the Ketzin refurbishment centre, where management provided a detailed briefing on the Merchant portal.
J.P. Morgan addressed concerns about declining AutoHero inventory, attributing the decline to improved inventory turns, a demand‑based sourcing approach, and the implementation of new pricing mechanisms, and expects inventory levels to normalise from the third quarter onward. June data from Auto1’s own price index showed European used‑car prices down 1.1 % year‑on‑year. The bank noted that faster inventory turns and higher pricing visibility relative to offline dealers reduce that risk.
The bank moved to a sum‑of‑the‑parts valuation framework to reflect distinct value‑creation profiles across the Merchant and Retail divisions, arriving at a €37 fair‑value based on a 26E–28E EBITDA compound annual growth rate of 58%.