The “Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021–2040” report uses high‑resolution 25 × 25 km CMIP6 model data corrected for regional bias to map district‑level climate shifts for 2021‑2040 against a 1960 baseline.
It projects India’s average coastal temperature to increase by 1.5 °C, with about 40 coastal districts experiencing summer temperature rises exceeding 1 °C; Ernakulam could see the highest increase of +1.3 °C.
Wet‑bulb temperatures in coastal Kerala and Tamil Nadu are expected to approach the dangerous 31 °C threshold for human health.
Suburban Mumbai is projected to endure an additional week (≈6 days) of heavy rainfall and a 1.3 °C rise in maximum summer temperature, indicating a need for heat‑resilient urban planning.
Surat and Bhavnagar are forecasted to receive 23‑24 % more Southwest monsoon rainfall compared with historical averages.
Under the moderate SSP2‑4.5 emission scenario, global sea levels are expected to rise by 15 cm by 2050, accelerating coastal erosion and creating “ghost villages” such as in Ganjam, Odisha.
Sea‑surface temperatures are rising at 0.27 °C per decade, increasing the likelihood of intense tropical cyclones.
Livelihood impacts include Koli community prawn‑drying losses in Mumbai, salt‑harvest destruction in Goa, and “empty nets” for small‑scale fishermen as warming seas push fish offshore; rising salinity in the Sundarbans is linked to skin diseases and menstrual health issues among women.
Quotes: Anurag Behar, CEO of Azim Premji Foundation, emphasizes the immediacy of the crisis; Harini Nagendra, Director of the School of Climate Change and Sustainability, stresses the need for proactive adaptation.
