Market-implied inflation premium narrowed to 1.28 percentage points from 1.60, as breakeven inflation fell to 5.39% from 5.65%.
Focus survey median 12‑month inflation expectations rose to 4.11% from 4.05%, while BoA projects monetary‑policy horizon inflation at 3.5%, up from 3.3%.
El Niño risks, upcoming Focus survey cutoff, and Aneel‑approved electricity tariff hikes could pressure food and energy inflation through 2027 and next 12 months.
Currency strengthened to R$5.05 per dollar but markets still price an upside inflation risk premium.