Bank of America analyst Benjamin Bowler, in a client note dated 9 September 2026, said that macroeconomic forces would need to be substantial to derail the artificial‑intelligence‑driven rally in technology stocks, even though long‑term bond yields are at multi‑year highs.
He highlighted that rising rates, persistent inflation, fiscal concerns and a recent leadership change at the Federal Reserve have placed investors on edge ahead of a seasonally volatile period.
Bowler referenced historical precedent, noting that in the late 1990s U.S. 30‑year Treasury yields increased by 200 basis points and the Fed raised rates by more than 100 basis points while the Nasdaq index continued to climb, suggesting macro headwinds have historically struggled to disrupt tech euphoria.
He added that ongoing Middle‑East tensions have likewise failed to dampen enthusiasm for AI‑related equities.
Current data show technology earnings are outpacing share‑price appreciation, leading to a de‑rating of core U.S. AI names, yet the broader Nasdaq bubble‑risk indicator remains subdued.
Bowler cautioned investors not to ignore macro risk, stating that volatility markets appear cheap because market participants have not yet priced in the risks, and recommended hedging where appropriate.
He projected that equities are likely to “bounce hard from any pullback,” echoing the rapid recoveries observed during the dot‑com era, but warned that such swift rebounds can be a warning sign of a building bubble.
At the time of writing, the US1 index was up 0.12%, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.32%, and the US 30‑year Treasury yield down 0.23%.