Bank of America analysts argue that the widely held belief that carry trades generate superior returns in the summer months lacks robust statistical backing, noting that macro‑economic conditions exert a far greater influence than the calendar effect. The conventional summer‑carry narrative, which points to lighter trading volumes, fewer economic releases and reduced policy activity in July and August, is challenged by the data. Historical analysis shows no consistent decline in realized interest‑rate volatility during the summer, and seasonal volatility shifts are observed throughout the year, with some of the largest movements occurring before the summer period. Implied volatility does exhibit a modest dip around mid‑year, followed by a rise ahead of the autumn policy calendar, but the magnitude of this shift is small and appears to reflect lower risk premiums rather than a genuine reduction in market uncertainty. The summer months have also witnessed several notable carry‑trade reversals, specifically in August 2007, August 2015 and August 2024, illustrating how thin liquidity can amplify volatility when unexpected shocks arise. Despite these observations, current macro‑economic conditions continue to support a near‑term preference for carry strategies: economic activity remains firm, recession concerns are contained, and market risks are tilted more toward reflation than contraction. Interest‑rate volatility has remained relatively stable even as markets price a more hawkish Federal Reserve trajectory in response to higher oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, indicating that investors anticipate a predictable policy path without viewing the broader outlook as uncertain. The analysts identify the principal threats to carry strategies as a deeper Middle East conflict and another oil‑price spike, both of which could disrupt the stable growth, contained inflation and low‑volatility environment that underpin carry trades. Consequently, they recommend maintaining a short‑volatility, long‑carry position throughout the summer, while also seeking exposure to higher forward volatility over the medium term as US mid‑term election risks begin to affect shorter‑dated contracts. In addition, ten‑year US Treasury bonds are estimated to be roughly 50 basis points cheaper than their fundamental fair value; the combination of positive carry and rolldown reinforces the case for holding these securities, with the US yield curve offering superior carry value relative to several other developed‑market bond curves.