Analyst Note – Barclays Nordic Telecom Outlook (23 June 2026)

Barclays released a research note on 23 June 2026 highlighting divergent pressures across the Nordic telecom market. The bank downgraded Telenor ASA to Underweight and cut its price target from NOK 160 to NOK 140, citing a difficult second quarter after Telenor became the only EU telecom operator to issue a profit warning in its first‑quarter results. Consequently, Telenor shares slipped 1.1 % in Oslo trading by 08:08 GMT.

Conversely, Barclays upgraded Telia Company to Equal Weight and raised its target price from SEK 37 to SEK 51, pointing to steady execution in Sweden as the primary reason for removing downside risk. The ratings for Elisa Oyj and Tele2 AB were left unchanged at Equal Weight.

Market Growth and Competitive Dynamics

Barclays estimates that the Finnish market will grow only ~2 % in 2025, down from historic 3‑5 % rates, as rapid fibre rollout cannibalises fixed‑wireless access subscriptions and competitive dynamics intensify. The firm notes that Telia’s repositioning as a challenger after years of market‑share loss has led to elevated promotions and ARPU pressure across all three Finnish operators—Elisa, Telenor, and Telia—an environment the analysts expect to persist in the coming quarters.

Operator‑Specific Outlooks

  • Telenor: Barclays projects EBITDA to turn negative in Q2 2026, driven by tough year‑on‑year comparisons in Norway, continued pressure in Finland, and headwinds from Bangladesh. The note describes Q2 2026 as set to deteriorate further, with an unresolved complex equity story.
  • Norway: Total end‑user revenues are forecast to reach NOK 41.43 billion in 2025, representing a 3 % year‑on‑year increase. Sector capital expenditure is expected to fall sharply as operators shift from network build‑out to monetisation.
  • Sweden: Barclays sees low‑to‑mid single‑digit growth across operators, noting potential upside from fixed‑line wholesale regulation and a possible consolidation of the mobile market from four to three operators.
  • Tele2: Remains Barclays’ core Overweight position, supported by exposure to Sweden and the Baltics and potential M&A upside, though analysts flagged near‑term uncertainty linked to a CEO transition.

The analysis was led by Maurice Patrick and his team, who emphasized that the Finnish market slowdown and the divergent performance trajectories in Norway and Sweden are key determinants of the rating adjustments.