Barclays downgraded Vale S.A. to “equal weight” from “overweight” as its shares surged 35% YTD, erasing peer discount.
Barclays cut Vale’s price target to $17 (up 3% from $16.50) and lowered EPS 8% for 2026, 12% for 2027.
Barclays projects free cash flow yields rising to 9.2% by 2028 and notes iron‑ore price forecast of $102/t in 2026, $95/t in 2027.
2027 catalysts include buyback restart, special dividends after net debt < $15bn, and a minority stake listing in Vale Base Metals.