Barcles warned that the current equity rally despite rising oil prices and Hormuz tensions rests on a “flimsy equilibrium.”
The bank noted that stagflationary pressures are building and that U.S. naval enforcement risks could tighten oil supply, exposing risk assets.
Barclays expects a near‑term equity grind‑higher if the cease‑fire holds and earnings beat expectations, but views the window as inherently unstable.
It advises investors to stay humble, use structures, reload hedges, and notes options imply 5.8% moves – third‑highest in a decade.