Barclays expects Q1 2026 energy services earnings to face only minor impact from the Iran war despite lower revenue and higher costs.
The bank sees oil prices staying structurally higher due to eliminated overcapacity, added geopolitical risk premium, and heightened energy security concerns.
Barclays recommends focusing on North American and offshore‑focused firms such as Halliburton, Weatherford, Tenaris, Patterson‑UTI and TechnipFMC, while deeming Middle‑East‑exposed names riskier.
Upstream spending is expected to accelerate with mid‑single‑digit growth embedded in forward estimates for 2027.