Barclays Raises Peru Sol Year‑End Target
Barclays has raised its forecast for the Peruvian sol to 3.30 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2026, up from its previous target. The revision follows preliminary results of the presidential runoff that point to a likely victory for right‑wing candidate Keiko Fujimori, although the outcome has not yet been formally certified. Markets have already priced a high probability of Fujimori’s win, which is evident in the recent strengthening of the sol and the central bank’s foreign‑exchange intervention through dollar purchases.
Barclays notes that Peru’s strong external position underpins the currency outlook. The country benefits from elevated copper prices and a sizable trade surplus, providing a solid anchor for the sol despite political uncertainty. The firm expects the sol to rally toward the 3.30 level once the political environment stabilises.
The bank also cautions that a late reversal in favour of opponent Sánchez would likely provoke a negative market reaction. Sánchez is associated with a more interventionist policy framework and proposals to convene a constitutional assembly, raising concerns about policy predictability and institutional stability.
Overall, Barclays anticipates the Peruvian sol to reach 3.30 per dollar by year‑end, contingent on the dissipation of political uncertainty and the continuation of favourable external fundamentals.