Barclays outlook on the Romanian leu
Barclays forecasts that the National Bank of Romania (NBR) will maintain the euro‑Romanian leu exchange rate close to its current level in its base‑case scenario, citing persistently elevated inflation and the central bank’s use of the exchange rate as an anti‑inflationary anchor. The bank highlights that political uncertainty surrounding the appointment of the next prime minister is expected to keep the leu under pressure in the near term. Moreover, Barclays warns that a presidential decision to call snap elections would add further strain, potentially initiating another leg of leu depreciation. From a valuation standpoint, the leu continues to appear expensive when assessed against both a real effective exchange‑rate model and a behavioral equilibrium exchange‑rate model, suggesting overvaluation concerns. The NBR’s policy of exchange‑rate management is reaffirmed as a tool to control inflation in the Romanian economy. The article notes a modest intraday move of the euro‑Romanian leu at +0.06 %.