Barclays upgraded Porsche AG’s stock rating on Tuesday, moving it from Underweight to Equal Weight and raising its price target to €50 per share from the previous €40. The analyst team, led by Henning Cosman, also trimmed its underlying operating profit estimate for 2026 by 13% and its 2027 forecast by 17%, marking a second consecutive round of downward revisions. Despite these cuts, the analysts now align with consensus expectations for a recovery in 2028, prompting a neutralisation of the prior negative stance.
The firm projects Porsche’s vehicle deliveries to decline 13% in 2026 and a further 11% in 2027, before rebounding with a 16% increase in 2028. Correspondingly, operating margins are forecast at 8.8% for 2026, easing to 8.1% in 2027 as lower volumes pressure profitability, and then improving to 10.5% in 2028 – comfortably within management’s target range of 10‑15%.
Barclays highlighted that Porsche’s valuation remains elevated, trading at roughly 17 times projected 2028 earnings, well above peers such as BMW and Mercedes‑Benz, which trade near 5 times earnings. Reflecting improving sentiment, the bank now applies a 15‑times multiple to 2028 earnings in its valuation model, up from the 12.5‑times multiple used for 2026 earnings. The upgrade is attributed to the absence of near‑term negative catalysts, a new management team, and a perceived normalisation of Porsche’s performance in China relative to German rivals.
The rating change precedes Porsche’s investor‑focused “Icons of Porsche” event scheduled for June 20, after which the company will release its second‑quarter results on July 29. Barclays expects a solid quarter, with margins likely to exceed the top end of full‑year guidance, though it cautions that the risk to the Q2 forecast is “quite high.” A capital‑markets day later in the year, featuring new CEO Michael Leiters, is anticipated to provide further detail on the path back to double‑digit margins.