Barclays upgraded CaixaBank to Overweight and downgraded BBVA to Equal Weight ahead of Q1 results, citing a defensive stance.
Barclays expects ECB to lift deposit rate to 2.5% and sees rates staying high through 2027, factoring higher Turkish rates.
CaixaBank’s 2027 net interest income forecast €13 bn, EPS 6% above consensus; BBVA earnings trimmed ~3% and price target cut to €20.50.
Analysts note Middle East conflict raises inflation and rates, USMCA renegotiations add near‑term downside risk for BBVA.