BCA Research: 70% Chance Iran War Escalates

BCA Research assigns 70% probability that the Iran war will re‑escalate within the next 12 months.
Chief strategist Matt Gertken says Iran’s recent Strait of Hormuz attacks aim to keep oil prices high while avoiding firm negotiations.
BCA recommends closing cease‑fire‑optimism bullish trades, staying long U.S. energy stocks up 5.6% since April 15, and favoring Australia over emerging Asian equities.
The firm sees a 60% chance cease‑fire will fail due to unresolved nuclear talks, making any short‑term Hormuz reopening unsustainable.