BCA Research warns AI capex boom may later bust, tracking four indicators: adoption metrics, GPU/memory prices, analyst capex estimates, AI financial risk measures.
Chief Strategist Peter Berezin likens 2026 to 2000, noting surge in AI computing demand could cause a 1999‑type melt‑up.
BCA raised its 12‑month equity allocation recommendation from slight underweight to neutral amid elevated S&P 500 earnings driven by supply shortages.
The firm expects current computing capacity shortage to reverse into surplus, potentially eroding tech firms’ monopoly power.