BCA Research Flags Energy‑Driven Growth Contraction

BCA Research warns the Middle East energy shock is shifting market risk from price spikes to growth contraction, advising no added risk.
The report flags a mid‑April deadline; if the energy disruption continues, recession‑type pricing could accelerate rapidly across markets.
Central banks are expected to pivot, looking through short‑term energy spikes to support weakening growth, with Japan as a notable outlier.
For investors, BCA recommends favoring duration in fixed‑income markets vulnerable to growth slowdown and notes terms‑of‑trade driving FX volatility favoring exporters.