BCA Research Forecasts 3.2% Inflation

CPI swaps price 3.2% inflation for US and Euro area over 12 months, implying 3.9% US and 3.5% Euro rise since 2020.
US tariffs lift core goods PCE inflation about three percentage points above baseline, while short‑term expectations rise but long‑term remain anchored.
Global wage growth has slowed, jobs‑workers gap narrows, reducing risk of a wage‑price spiral and limiting further price acceleration.
Four structural forces—fiscal debt over GDP, fading globalization, demographic aging, and AI‑driven capex ($678bn in 2026)—shape inflation outlook to decade’s end.