BCA Warns Energy Shock Triggers Recession Risk

BCA Research warns that persistent Middle East energy shock could trigger recession pricing if it continues into mid‑April.
The report says temporary buffers like emergency stock releases mask oil deficit severity, shifting risk focus from price pressures to growth contraction.
BCA recommends a “Do Not Add Risk” stance, favoring duration in markets vulnerable to growth slowdown and noting Japan as an outlier.
Terms of trade now drive FX volatility, benefiting exporters with secure energy supplies over import‑dependent economies.