Berenberg has initiated coverage of Meridian Mining plc, assigning a “buy” rating and setting a price target of 168 pence per share for the London‑listed stock, which represents an implied 89 % upside. For the Toronto‑listed shares the brokerage targets CAD 3 per share.
Meridian Mining, recently listed on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, is developing the Cabaçal gold‑copper‑silver deposit in Brazil. The historic underground operation, mined in the 1980s‑1990s, will be converted to a shallow open‑pit mine with permitting already well progressed. First production is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2028.
The mine’s initial stage will process 2.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), expanding to 4.5 Mtpa from the fourth year of operation. Over the first five years, the company expects to produce approximately 18,000 tonnes of copper, 92,000 ounces of gold and 153,000 ounces of silver annually. Across an 11‑year initial life‑of‑mine, average volumes are projected at about 16,000 tonnes of copper, 69,000 ounces of gold and 124,000 ounces of silver per year.
Berenberg models initial capital expenditure at US$273 million and estimates a life‑of‑mine EBITDA margin of roughly 67 %. The valuation yields a net present value of US$1 billion, an internal rate of return of 95 %, and a payback period of approximately one year. The brokerage incorporates a conservative risk‑adjusted upside of US$66 million for a potential life‑of‑mine extension and US$50 million for broader exploration upside.
Exploration upside is highlighted by a recent resource upgrade at Cabaçal that could extend the mine’s life by at least four years, with additional potential across the broader Cabaçal belt and the adjacent Jaurú and Araputanga belts.
Key catalysts over the next 24 months include a definitive feasibility study in Q4 2026, early civil and infrastructure works in Q3 2026, a final investment decision and funding in Q1 2027, further permitting in Q1 2027, construction commencement in Q2 2027, and first production in Q4 2028. Berenberg expects these milestones, together with the project’s quality, to drive the share price toward a net‑asset‑value multiple of 1×, up from the current 0.53×.
The brokerage flags several risks: project delivery uncertainties, funding gaps as the project is not fully funded, volatility in copper, gold and silver prices, and possible changes to Brazilian corporate tax or royalty rates.