Bernstein Research Note on SpaceX Competitive Landscape
Bernstein’s latest research note identifies China as the most credible long‑term competitive threat to SpaceX, despite the U.S. firm’s commanding lead in reusable launch technology and satellite operations. The note highlights China’s recent successful landing of the first‑stage booster from its Long March 10B rocket, a milestone that occurred roughly six months earlier than the brokerage had anticipated, underscoring accelerating progress in Chinese space‑launch capabilities.
While acknowledging this progress, Bernstein points out that the Long March 10 has yet to demonstrate booster reuse, whereas SpaceX has been reusing Falcon 9 boosters for nearly a decade and completed 165 launches in the previous year. To match SpaceX’s launch cadence, China must still prove rapid relaunch capabilities and develop high‑rate manufacturing capacity.
Bernstein further emphasizes China’s substantial state resources and ambitious space objectives, which include a planned crewed lunar landing around 2030 and proposals to deploy more than 200,000 low‑Earth‑orbit satellites. The brokerage argues that this growing U.S.–China competition constitutes a new space race that could strengthen government support for SpaceX and other U.S. aerospace companies.
In its valuation, Bernstein retains an "Outperform" rating on SpaceX and sets a $239 price target, citing the company’s lead in fully reusable Starship technology as a key long‑term advantage.