Core Findings

Bernstein’s latest research challenges the prevailing view that AI‑driven data‑center expansion will dramatically boost copper demand. While global data‑center capacity is expected to approach 200 GW by 2030, the firm projects that copper consumption by data centres will remain roughly 400,000‑500,000 tonnes per year over the next several years and then decline in the 2030s despite continued capacity growth.

Technological Shift Reducing Copper Use

The report highlights an industry‑wide move toward 800‑volt direct‑current (800VDC) architecture, especially in AI‑focused facilities. Higher‑voltage systems require less current, allowing a copper reduction of up to 45 % compared with existing lower‑voltage infrastructure. This shift weakens the direct correlation many investors assume between data‑center expansion and power‑grid copper demand.

Grid Interconnection and Behind‑the‑Meter Generation

Lengthy transmission‑grid interconnection delays in the United States and Europe are prompting operators to adopt behind‑the‑meter power generation. Consequently, the immediate need for new transmission and distribution copper investments is reduced.

Energy‑Storage Emerging as a Copper Driver

Energy‑storage systems are identified as a growing source of copper demand. Bernstein forecasts global energy‑storage capacity to rise from about 550 GWh in 2025 to roughly 1,500 GWh by 2030, driven by expanding renewable‑energy deployment and heightened demand for grid flexibility.

Supply‑Side Outlook

On the supply side, the report upgrades its outlook for BHP’s Escondida OGP2 project and First Quantum’s Cobre Panama project, while taking a more cautious stance on Barrick Mining’s Reko Diq development.

Market Balance and Deficit Forecasts

Bernstein continues to project a copper market deficit in 2026, followed by a broadly balanced market through 2029. From 2030 onward, deficits are expected to widen as electrification‑related demand outpaces supply growth.

Pricing and Valuation Adjustments

The firm raises price targets for Antofagasta and Freeport‑McMoRan, yet retains Market Perform ratings on both, noting that copper‑focused miners are already trading at meaningful premiums to historical valuation averages.