Bernstein maintains its second‑half 2026 aluminium price target at $3,100 per tonne, citing that despite the easing of supply concerns after the Strait of Hormuz cease‑fire and the reopening of shipping routes, the physical market remains tighter than before the conflict.
Middle‑East production is recovering faster than anticipated; Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) reported that its Al Taweelah facility, which has a capacity of 1.6 million tonnes per annum, has restarted ahead of schedule. EGA indicated that a return to pre‑crisis shipment levels will require the Strait to remain open, while full recovery of shipments could take up to one year.
In China, new aluminium smelting capacity of 740,000 tonnes per annum is being added this year, bringing total Chinese output to roughly 45.3 million tonnes. Export‑oriented sectors remain resilient, but domestic demand in construction and real estate continues to weaken.
Manufacturing conditions have stabilised in Europe, Japan and the United States, although underlying demand remains far from robust.
Bernstein notes that aluminium margins stay above long‑term mid‑cycle levels and that the market is expected to remain in deficit throughout 2026, which should support prices above the $3,000 per tonne threshold this year before a gradual move toward long‑term mid‑cycle levels.