Bernstein analysts anticipate a broadly solid second‑quarter earnings season for the chemicals sector, noting limited guidance revisions across their coverage. Their highest‑conviction tactical call is Akzo Nobel, where they argue that market expectations for a FY2026 EBITDA cut are overly pessimistic. While consensus forecasts place FY2026 EBITDA at approximately €1.42 billion, Bernstein continues to model it at €1.48 billion and judges a guidance reduction at the upcoming Q2 results as highly unlikely. The brokerage cites only modest evidence of volume weakness and expects raw‑material cost inflation to be manageable, requiring low single‑digit pricing adjustments in 2026 to preserve the neutral raw‑material spread assumed in the guidance. Bernstein also notes that stronger pricing and resilient volumes could provide upside to the third‑quarter guidance, though medium‑term outlook certainty is lower.
Regarding Air Liquide, Bernstein remains constructive on the underlying business but warns that consensus growth expectations for the second half of the year appear overstated, particularly in the Large Industries segment. The firm does not anticipate a meaningful acceleration in on‑site volume demand outside the Americas nor significant project ramp‑ups beyond the Normand’Hy project. Despite modelling lower growth than consensus, Bernstein stays broadly in line with full‑year profitability, expecting cost‑saving initiatives and margin improvements to offset weaker growth. It forecasts a 130‑basis‑point improvement in 2H26 underlying operating income recurring (OIR) margin and projects 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at €6.76, compared with the consensus estimate of €6.43.
For Solvay, Bernstein identifies the weakest near‑term risk‑reward profile among the highlighted names. While it expects an in‑line Q2 EBITDA result, the brokerage cautions that even a modest earnings miss could raise doubts about Solvay’s ability to meet the lower end of its FY2026 guidance range. A small beat, roughly €185 million of EBITDA, would still leave the guidance vulnerable in what Bernstein describes as a low‑demand, inflationary environment. The firm models FY2026 EBITDA at €774 million, close to the lower bound of the company’s €770‑€850 million guidance range, assuming the Sadara peroxides plant restarts by Q4 and that there is no further deterioration in demand or soda‑ash pricing. Any additional weakness in demand or pricing would prompt a more bearish stance on the stock.
Overall, Bernstein’s analysis underscores confidence in Akzo Nobel’s earnings trajectory, a measured optimism for Air Liquide tempered by expectation‑management concerns, and heightened risk awareness for Solvay amid a subdued demand backdrop.