Bernstein has updated its copper price outlook for 2026, setting an average forecast of $12,419 per metric ton. For the second half of 2026 the firm expects prices around $11,750 per ton, which is modestly below the market consensus of $12,515 per ton. Looking further ahead, Bernstein projects the average 2030 copper price to fall to $10,700 per ton as supply deficits are anticipated to develop toward the end of the decade.
The revision reflects a combination of near‑term macro pressures and tightening physical market conditions. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher, dampening industrial sentiment. At the same time, a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve are creating headwinds for commodities. On the supply side, several producers have announced guidance cuts and U.S. inventory stockpiling has intensified, tightening the available physical copper supply and providing additional price support.
These factors together underpin Bernstein’s view that copper prices will remain elevated in the short term despite being slightly below the consensus, and will later decline as supply shortfalls become more pronounced.