Analyst Upgrade and Revised Target
Bernstein has upgraded Aena S.A. to an “outperform” rating from “market‑perform” and increased its price target to €30.80 per share, up from the prior €27 target.
Traffic Outlook and Passenger Forecasts
The brokerage forecasts Spanish airport passenger traffic to expand 3.6% in 2026, well above Aena’s internal guidance of 1.3% and the market consensus of 2.5%. To reflect this, Bernstein raised the 2026 traffic estimate by roughly 3 million passengers, bringing the total to 333 million. It also expects passenger growth to accelerate to about 4% through the summer months, up from the 2.1% recorded in the first quarter, which could trigger a traffic guidance upgrade.
Commercial and International Growth Drivers
Bernstein cites accelerating commercial revenues, resilient international operations, and a “benign regulatory agreement” as key contributors to a stronger medium‑term earnings outlook. The broker notes a shift in travel flows away from the Middle East toward Southern European leisure markets, benefiting Aena, and highlights continued strength at London‑Luton airport supported by Wizz Air capacity expansion.
Regulatory Environment and Tariff Outlook
Feedback from Spain’s competition authority, CNMC, on the DORA III framework aligns with Bernstein’s expectations, limiting potential tariff cuts in 2027 and supporting investment‑led value creation. CNMC has proposed a pre‑tax weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.44%, below Aena’s 9% request. It also projects aeronautical tariffs to decline by 0.59% annually from 2027 to 2031, contrasting with Aena’s proposal for a 3.82% yearly increase. Bernstein anticipates the final regulatory agreement to be published in September.
Capital Expenditure and Operating Cost Pressures
The brokerage expects Aena’s average annual capital expenditure to almost triple, reaching approximately €2.20 billion in the next regulatory cycle, compared with €4.5 billion of mainly maintenance capex incurred over the prior two periods (2013‑2026). Operating expenses grew 17.8% in the first quarter, driven in part by construction activities at BOAB airports. Staff costs rose 12.4%, maintenance costs increased 20%, and security costs were up 8.5%.
Political and Legal Risks
Bernstein flags political risk stemming from a March 2026 bilateral agreement with the Basque Country, which led Aena to publicly reaffirm constitutional limits on decentralisation. It also references a 2025 regulatory tariff freeze imposed after airline lobbying, which forced the company into administrative litigation.
Earnings Outlook and Competitive Positioning
Despite the identified headwinds, Bernstein views them as well‑understood and more than offset by retail upside, international growth, real‑estate optionality, and improved earnings visibility. Consequently, the firm’s FY+2 EBITDA estimates are positioned 2‑3% above consensus. In its sector ranking ahead of second‑quarter results, Bernstein places Aena first, followed by Flughafen Zurich, Fraport, and Aéroports de Paris (the latter two retained at “market‑perform” with a reduced price target of €116 from €120).