BofA Global Research Metals & Mining Outlook

Bank of America Global Research released a sector‑wide note identifying its top stock picks in the North American metals and mining arena after a broad reduction in near‑term commodity price forecasts. Analyst Lawson Winder led the revision, lowering estimates and valuations across the sector. The Commodities team cut 30 price objectives—21 for precious‑metal stocks, three for base‑metal stocks and four for steel stocks—and reduced 2026 earnings estimates for 28 of the 30 companies under coverage.

The research team expects market conditions to remain challenging through the autumn, with a potential recovery after the summer. Despite the weaker outlook, BofA retains its highest conviction upside in uranium, nickel, platinum and silver, while U.S. hot‑rolled coil steel prices imply a downside bias.

Top Picks

1. Cameco Corp (CCJ) – BofA maintains a constructive view on uranium, noting that spot uranium prices are still about 23% below the firm’s 2026 average forecast. The company benefits from supply discipline, utility restocking upside, and a strong balance sheet, offering roughly 48% upside to BofA’s price objective. Cameco also gains from its 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric Company, which supports the build‑out of new nuclear capacity in the United States.

2. Freeport‑McMoRan Inc (FCX) – BofA reiterates Freeport‑McMoRan as its top base‑metals pick for 2026, citing approximately 35% upside to the price objective. The firm highlights FCX’s leverage to copper through an operating turnaround and visible growth that is not yet fully reflected in its valuation. BofA also materially reduced its aluminum price forecasts, indicating limited upside to the 2026 price target.

3. Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS) – Although BofA cut its 2026 gold price forecast by 14% to $4,360 per ounce, it added Pan American Silver as a top precious‑metals pick, projecting a 56% upside to the price objective. The firm expects 2027 gold prices to rise to $4,813 per ounce if rate hikes cease. BofA notes that platinum and silver present better upside versus spot prices in 2026, and PAAS benefits from under‑priced silver growth, rising capital returns, dormant‑asset upside potential, and the projected upside.

Additional Forecast Adjustments

  • The 2026 gold price forecast was reduced by 14% to $4,360 per ounce, with a forward view of $4,813 per ounce for 2027 contingent on the cessation of rate hikes.
  • Aluminum price forecasts were materially lowered, leaving limited upside to the 2026 target.
  • Hot‑rolled coil steel prices in the United States suggest a downside environment for steel‑related equities.