Bridgewater Associates assesses that AI‑driven job losses will remain limited in 2026 because of computing capacity constraints and a resilient U.S. economy.
Adoption of AI is modest: fewer than 20 % of U.S. firms reported using AI in any business function over a two‑week period, with usage concentrated in information, technology and professional services, according to Census Bureau data.
More than 90 % of firms that use AI reported no employment effect in the past six months; among the minority that did experience staffing changes, headcount increases outnumbered decreases.
Bridgewater identifies two near‑term risks to this outlook: a possible escalation of the Iran conflict and cost pressures from firms’ AI capital investments.
The firm warns that, even with muted labor disruption, the absence of AI‑induced economic cooling could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation in a tight labour market.
