Rating Upgrade Overview
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Carnival Corp.’s issuer credit rating from BB+ to BBB‑ on 25 June 2026, highlighting the cruise operator’s strong forward bookings for fiscal 2026 and early 2027, which provide enhanced revenue and cash‑flow visibility.
Forward Bookings and Revenue Outlook
Carnival has secured 93 % of its 2026 inventory, and booking volumes for 2027 are running higher than the prior year at increased price points. The agency expects funds‑from‑operations to debt to be approximately 25 % in 2026, with the ratio improving in 2027. S&P forecasts 3.3 % revenue growth for fiscal 2026, while modest EBITDA declines are anticipated due to elevated fuel costs stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Guidance Adjustments
The company outperformed its second‑quarter guidance on the back of strong onboard revenue and cost control, yet it revised its fiscal‑year 2026 net‑yield guidance down to 1.75 % growth on a constant‑currency basis, from the earlier 2.75 % target. The downgrade reflects weaker close‑in bookings for Mediterranean itineraries, which have been disrupted by Middle‑East conflict.
Leverage and Debt Metrics
S&P expects Carnival’s adjusted debt‑to‑EBITDA to reach roughly 3.3 × by fiscal‑year end 2026, comfortably below the 3.75 × threshold that would trigger a further upgrade. The rating agency projects the company will maintain leverage under 2.75 ×, leveraging the expanding cash flow to support deleveraging and to increase shareholder returns.
Ship Delivery Schedule
Carnival will receive no new ships in fiscal 2026 and plans to add one ship each year from fiscal 2027 through 2033. This delivery cadence represents a reduction from the three‑to‑five annual deliveries recorded during fiscal 2018‑2022, a strategy S&P believes will aid cash‑flow generation despite incremental ship‑related debt.
Outlook and Rating Action
The outlook remains stable, with forward bookings and moderate yield growth expected to keep FFO‑to‑debt above 25 %, leverage in the low‑3 × range, and EBITDA interest coverage above 6 × over the next twelve months. S&P raised all of Carnival’s ratings, including the issuer credit rating and issue‑level ratings on unsecured debt.