Morgan Stanley’s second‑quarter value‑added reseller (VAR) survey identifies Cisco Systems as the clear leader in networking, with average growth expectations for the company increasing to 3.0% from 0.6% in the prior survey. Analyst Meta Marshall reiterated an Overweight rating on Cisco and set a $130 price target. The survey found that 43% of VARs consider Cisco best positioned to capture incremental AI and data‑center modernization spending over the next 12 months, ahead of Nvidia and white‑box or specialist networking vendors, each cited by 30% of respondents.
Cisco’s networking pipeline also strengthened: 67% of VARs now expect sales to increase, up from 48% previously, lifting the net pipeline score to +60% from +39%. Growth expectations broadened across both business segments, with campus‑led growth expectations rising to 17% from 3% and data‑center expectations climbing to 20% from 13%.
Refresh activity is translating into purchases; 30% of VARs reported customers had recently completed a Catalyst 9000 switching refresh, a sharp rise from just 6% in the earlier survey. Security was the leading driver of these refreshes, cited by 53% of respondents versus 29% previously. Correspondingly, 70% of VARs now expect Cisco’s security sales to increase, up from 45% a year earlier, pushing the security net pipeline score to +63% from +39%.
Sentiment toward Splunk, the cybersecurity and analytics firm acquired by Cisco, also improved: 33% of VARs reported customers were positive and purchasing more, up from 20%, while the share reporting purchasing declines fell to 7% from 10%.
Quoting CIOs directly, one respondent noted positive growth for both Cisco and Juniper, attributing it to campus and data‑center refresh cycles, heightened security requirements, and interest in automation and AI‑assisted network management. Another CIO highlighted platform consolidation as a strength, stating that when clients seek fewer vendors, Cisco often wins because of its broader platform coverage. Marshall concluded that the survey results reinforce durable demand and improve Cisco’s wallet share, supporting the bank’s Overweight rating on the stock.