Citi research finds USD/JPY rarely falls below its 200‑day moving average when Brent crude trades above $80 per barrel.
When Brent stays between $60‑$80 and above its 200‑day average, USD/JPY typically remains above its own 200‑day average.
If Brent falls below its 200‑day average in the $60‑$80 range, USD/JPY more frequently breaches its 200‑day average.
USD/JPY trades around ¥153‑¥154; 200‑day average expected near ¥155 next month, needing Brent to dip below its 200‑day average to fall further.