Citi’s 3‑Month Uranium Outlook
Citi analysts project that uranium will trade above $100 per pound during the next three months, reaffirming a bullish stance on the commodity. The bank’s longer‑term uranium price benchmark has risen to a record $96 per pound, extending an uninterrupted advance that began in January 2025 and tracing an uptrend that dates back to 2018.
Demand Drivers
Nuclear power demand remains underpinned by competitive electricity economics and a growing pipeline of projects. In the United States, several small modular reactors (SMRs) are already under construction, and an additional two to three projects could receive approval later in the year. Three nuclear plants are also being restarted, and power uprates are supported by the Department of Energy’s UPRISE program.
Military Interest
The U.S. Army’s $2.2 billion Janus program has selected five developers to build micro‑reactors at five military installations, with a longer‑term ambition to deploy more than 20 units. The selected reactors are expected to use high‑assay low‑enriched uranium (HALEU) and TRISO‑based fuel, potentially creating new demand across uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication, and other nuclear fuel‑cycle services.
Scenario Analysis
- Bull scenario (25% probability): Uranium prices are expected to average $99 per pound in 2026. Junior miners that fail to meet contractual commitments could be forced to purchase material aggressively in the spot market, adding upward pressure on prices.
- Bear scenario (15% probability): The 2026 average price is projected at $85 per pound. This outcome assumes that Russian enriched uranium returns to U.S. and European markets, enrichment prices fall to around $150 per separative work unit, and at least 70% of junior mining projects scheduled for the next five years enter production successfully.
The report excerpt does not specify a central‑case 2026 average price target, but the near‑term call remains clear: uranium is expected to stay above $100 per pound within the three‑month horizon.