Global Bear Market Checklist reading is 10 out of 18, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, with 10 indicators flashing warning signals.
United States score 11.5/18 (most stretched), Europe 5/18. Historical peaks: 17.5 in March 2000, 13 before 2007‑08 crisis.
Valuation metrics: MSCI AC World trailing P/E 24×, forward P/E 18×, CAPE 36×; US trailing P/E 28×, forward P/E 22×, CAPE 46×. Global equity risk premium 2.5%, US same.
Yield‑curve spread (10‑yr vs 2‑yr) 41 bps globally and in the US; compared with –50 bps (Mar 2000) and 0 bps (Oct 2007).
Corporate activity: projected capex growth 21 % YoY globally, 33 % US for 2026; M&A activity 3.7 % of market cap (12 mo); IPO issuance 0.4 % of developed‑market cap (large US listings) now amber.
Profitability: Global ROE 6 %, US ROE 21 %; EPS 27 % above prior global peak, 34 % above US peak.
Credit markets: High‑yield spreads 263 bps, investment‑grade spreads 73 bps (both global and US); net debt/EBITDA 1.3× for non‑financial firms.
Citi maintains a constructive equity outlook through year‑end, stating the checklist does not yet signal pronounced over‑exuberance.
