Citi has upgraded Nordex SE to a "buy" rating from "neutral" and increased its target price to €50, up from €48. The broker notes that Nordex’s shares have delivered a 27% year‑to‑date gain, which trails the 45% rise in consensus 2027 earnings‑per‑share estimates. Currently, the stock trades at roughly 6.5 times the estimated 2027 EV/EBITA.
Citi raised its 2029 and 2030 EBITDA forecasts by 5% and 7% respectively, citing stronger German onshore wind auction volumes. For 2027 and 2028, the firm projects Street EBITDA upgrades of 7% and 16%, driven by operating leverage and a favourable regional mix. The analyst expects the 2027 EBITDA margin to climb to 12.5%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 11.4% and the company’s mid‑term guidance range of 10%‑12%.
German onshore wind auction volumes are expected to decline from 14.4 GW in 2025 to 12 GW in 2026, but proposed volumes of 15 GW in both 2027 and 2028 should underpin Nordex’s order pipeline. Citi models 2028 order intake at 12.25 GW, more than 10% above consensus expectations.
While Citi acknowledges investor concerns that changes to the German auction system could complicate the 2027 auctions, it believes the existing backlog supports the 2027 outlook and much of 2028, and that the current valuation reflects a discount to a potential negative outcome. The broker also highlights a favourable country mix in 2027‑28, which together with operating leverage could push the EBITDA margin above the company’s guidance, reaching 12.5% in 2028.
For 2026, Citi expects management to tighten the margin range toward the upper end by the third‑quarter. The target EV/EBITA multiple for 2027 has been raised to 10× from 9×. Identified risks include adverse revisions to the German auction schedule, greater‑than‑expected price compression leading to margin erosion, execution risk in the second half of 2026, and weaker cash generation. Citi flags the first German auction in February 2027 as the event with the greatest risk to the share price, though it believes the market is already discounting a disorderly outcome.
Nordex shares closed at €40.60 on 7 September, giving the company a market capitalization of €9.62 billion.