Stock Market Impact: The report signals a slowdown in global merchandise export growth (forecast 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025) and heightened tariff exposure (nearly 20% of imports now tariff‑subject, up from 12.6% a year earlier). This suggests potential volatility for equities linked to commodities, logistics, and traditional export‑oriented sectors, while AI‑related hardware and clean‑energy firms may benefit from strong demand.
Listed Companies and Sectors: Companies producing AI‑related goods—semiconductors, servers, data‑centre hardware—are highlighted as drivers, accounting for 43% of trade growth in H1 2025 despite representing only 15% of trade volume. Firms in critical‑mineral supply chains (e.g., permanent‑magnet producers), clean‑energy infrastructure, and fintech/stable‑coin platforms are also positioned for growth. Traditional exporters of non‑AI merchandise face slower growth rates.
Investment Flows: Clean‑energy investment hit a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, outpacing fossil‑fuel investment by $102 billion, indicating strong FDI/FPI appetite for renewable projects. Global stable‑coin supply exceeded $300 billion in early 2026, with B2B stable‑coin payments up 733% YoY in 2025, and the first cross‑border CBDC transaction processed on the mBridge platform in November 2025, pointing to expanding digital‑finance inflows.
Interest Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity: No direct monetary‑policy actions are mentioned. However, the 2026 Iran‑related closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above $120 per barrel, reduced tanker transits by ~90%, and could feed into global inflation pressures, potentially influencing central‑bank policy.
Fiscal or Monetary Policy: No explicit policy announcements. The report notes the U.S. tariff regime shift—Trump‑era tariffs partially struck down in February 2026 and replaced by Section 122 and Section 301 instruments covering 90‑95% of U.S. imports—highlighting a move toward more fragmented trade rules.
Additional Findings:
80%+ of business leaders surveyed expect slow growth and continued disruption; 12% foresee a worst‑case scenario, only 4% a best‑case.
AI‑related goods grew >20% in H1 2025, five times faster than non‑AI goods (<4% growth).
WTO estimates sustained AI‑related trade growth could add 0.5 percentage points to global export volumes.
South‑South trade now represents ~35% of global trade, outpacing North‑North flows.
Supply‑chain strategies have shifted from “China + 1” to “China + many”; U.S. imports from Vietnam rose 345% (2014‑2024), India +94%, Mexico +72%, while imports from China fell 5%.
45% of businesses have engaged in onshoring, nearshoring, or friendshoring.
The 2026 Iran‑Houthi conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz (25% of global seaborne oil, 19% of LNG transits), raising oil prices and cutting tanker traffic.
China controls 94% of global sintered permanent‑magnet production and leads refining for 19 of 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA; average lead time from discovery to production is 16 years.
Global trade‑finance gap remains at $2.5 trillion, disproportionately affecting SMEs and developing‑economy exporters.
IMF projects emerging and developing economies will account for roughly two‑thirds of global growth by 2030.
The report issues policy recommendations for businesses (build resilience, scale AI, treat data as an asset, diversify payments, secure critical inputs) and governments (digital trade standards, paperless trade, expand trade‑finance access, invest in resilient corridors, develop critical‑minerals partnerships).
