Fed Cut Odds 43% After Iran Truce

Investors' probability of at least one Fed rate cut by year‑end rose to 43% from 14% after US‑Iran cease‑fire.
Oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel post‑truce but stay above pre‑war $70, supporting lower yields and higher gold.
BofA economist Stephen Juneau notes Fed may cut only if unemployment exceeds 4.5% amid inflation risks from the conflict.
Uncertainty remains as reopening Strait of Hormuz and clearing oil‑gas logjam may take months, potentially sustaining inflation.