Fitch Revises Formula 1 Rating Outlook to Positive
Fitch Ratings revised the outlook for Delta Topco Limited, the holding company of Formula 1, from Stable to Positive on 23 July 2026 and affirmed its long‑term issuer default rating at BB. The agency also affirmed the senior secured instrument rating of Delta 2 (Lux) S.a r.l. at BB+ with a Recovery Rating of RR2.
The Positive Outlook reflects Fitch’s expectation that Formula 1 will continue deleveraging while generating strong free‑cash flow over the next 24 months, even though the 2026 race calendar is truncated because of the Iran‑US conflict. Fitch forecasts EBITDA leverage to decline from 3.5× in 2026 to 2.9× in 2027 and further to 2.6× by 2028, a level consistent with a BB+ rating. Under a more conservative scenario that assumes the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races are also cancelled and only one replacement race is added, the calendar would comprise 21 races; in that case leverage remains at 3.5× in 2026, improves to 2.9× in 2027 and reaches 2.6× in 2028 when a full calendar is restored.
Fitch projects a pre‑dividend free‑cash‑flow margin of 13 % for 2026, rising to an average of 17 % across the 2026‑2029 period, supported by stable EBITDA growth. EBITDA margin is expected at 24 % in 2026 and to improve gradually to 26 % by 2028.
Revenue is primarily derived from multiyear contracts with media companies, race promoters and corporate sponsors, which together account for roughly 80 % of total revenue each year. The contracted revenue pipeline at the end of the first quarter of 2026 stood at $15.9 billion. Fitch assumes total revenue will increase 2 % in 2026, accelerate to 13 % in 2027 and grow in the mid‑single‑digit range for 2028‑2029.
Dividend payments to Liberty Media are forecast to range between $300 million and $500 million per year from 2026 through 2029, with larger amounts weighted toward the later years.