Fitch Gives IG Group Negative Outlook $1.3bn Deal
Fitch Ratings announced on 4 August 2026 that it has revised the Long‑Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) for IG Group Holdings PLC (LON:IGG) and its subsidiary IG Markets Limited from Stable to Negative, while affirming the rating level at ‘BBB’. The agency also affirmed IG Group’s GBP 1 billion euro‑denominated medium‑term note programme and the GBP 550 million senior unsecured notes issued under that programme at ‘BBB’.
The Negative Outlook is driven by the risk that IG Group’s medium‑term leverage will remain above Fitch’s negative‑rating sensitivity following the company’s announcement on 30 July 2026 of a partly debt‑funded acquisition of Underdog Sports Holdings, Inc. The acquisition is priced at USD 1.1 billion upfront, with total consideration potentially rising to USD 1.3 billion depending on earn‑out provisions, and is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027. Fitch projects that IG Group’s gross debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio will increase from 0.9× at the end of June 2026 to at least 1.5× and may stay at or above that level beyond the end of 2027, which is the threshold for a downgrade.
Regulatory capital resources were GBP 779 million at the end of the first half of 2026, comfortably above the minimum requirement of GBP 328 million; management is targeting capital resources equal to 160 %–200 % of the requirement. The company’s available liquidity stood at GBP 0.7 billion at the same date, though this buffer could be eroded if cash is deployed to fund the Underdog transaction. Concurrently, IG Group suspended its share‑buyback programme that had been in place prior to the acquisition announcement.
Fitch’s affirmation of the ‘BBB’ rating reflects IG Group’s leading position in over‑the‑counter (OTC) leveraged trading, ongoing revenue diversification, and solid performance in its core business. Nevertheless, OTC revenue’s share of total gross revenue fell to 64 % in the first half of 2026 from 92 % in FY 2019, indicating growth in exchange‑traded derivatives, stock trading, investments, and interest income on client money. The agency’s calculation shows the EBITDA margin declined to roughly 46 % in 1H 2026 from 52 % in FY 2025, primarily due to higher operating expenses.
Fitch warned that a further downgrade to ‘BBB‑’ could occur if IG Group does not sustainably reduce its gross debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio below the 1.5× threshold over the rating horizon. Conversely, the outlook could be upgraded back to Stable should the company demonstrate a clear path to lowering the ratio below 1.5×, supported by EBITDA growth that meets or exceeds expectations after the Underdog acquisition.