Fitch Upgrades Boeing Outlook to Positive on Production Recovery

Fitch Upgrades Boeing Outlook to Positive on Production Recovery

Fitch Ratings revised Boeing Company's (NYSE:BA) outlook on 27 June 2026, moving it from Stable to Positive while affirming the long‑term issuer default rating at BBB‑. The agency also affirmed Boeing’s short‑term IDR and commercial paper rating at F3, and its senior unsecured notes and revolvers at BBB‑.

The outlook upgrade reflects Fitch’s assessment that the recovery in 737 MAX production has proven durable, materially de‑risking the path toward credit metrics consistent with a higher rating. Current monthly output of the 737 MAX has stabilized at 42 aircraft, and the Federal Aviation Administration has cleared Boeing to advance toward 47 aircraft per month. The 787 production line has steadied on a trajectory toward 10 aircraft per month.

Fitch highlights that stabilising output, a return to full‑year profitability, and an inflection to positive free cash flow in 2026 underpin a credible deleveraging trajectory, reinforced by management’s consistent prioritisation of debt reduction. Boeing reduced its gross debt by $8.3 billion in the first half of 2026, bringing total gross debt to approximately $45.9 billion. The reduction was achieved by retiring maturities with cash on hand rather than refinancing. Fitch assumes Boeing will repay the $4.3 billion of debt due in 2027 using internally generated cash.

Recovering EBITDA and continued repayment are expected to lower Boeing’s EBITDA leverage from about 4.8× in 2026 to below 3.5× in 2027 and to roughly 2.5× in 2028.

Fitch expects Boeing to generate consistently positive free cash flow from 2026 onward, marking a credible inflection after several years of heavy cash burn. The company returned to full‑year profitability in 2025 and has guided to positive free cash flow of $1 billion to $3 billion in 2026, reversing the negative $14.3 billion recorded in 2024. Fitch projects cash generation to build steadily thereafter as delivery rates climb and working capital normalises.

A backlog of roughly $695 billion, encompassing more than 6,100 commercial aircraft, converts the production ramp into a visible, multi‑year earnings and cash‑flow trajectory. Fitch’s rating case assumes the 737 MAX will reach 52 aircraft per month during 2027, with certification of the ‑7 and ‑10 variants slated for the second half of 2026 and the 777X scheduled for 2027.