Fox Corp Upgraded to Overweight, Targets Raised

Analyst Upgrade Overview

Fox Corp was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by both J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo. J.P. Morgan lifted its price target to $82 from $70, while Wells Fargo raised its target to $80 from $65.

Earnings and Forecast Adjustments

Following the fourth‑quarter results, J.P. Morgan increased its fiscal 2027 and 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimates by 7% and 9%, respectively. The broker highlighted that fourth‑quarter television revenue rose 45% year‑over‑year to $2.48 billion, and segment EBITDA surged 129% to $705 million.

Tubi Performance

Tubi’s revenue grew 35%, aided by a 17% increase in viewing time, and the platform closed fiscal 2026 with 110 million monthly active users.

Outlook for Fiscal 2027

J.P. Morgan now projects fiscal 2027 television EBITDA at $1.49 billion, a 30% increase, noting that Fox’s decision not to renegotiate its existing NFL media‑rights deal early removes a major near‑term overhang. Wells Fargo raised its fiscal 2027 total EBITDA estimate to $4.12 billion from $3.85 billion and its television segment EBITDA to $1.6 billion from $1.3 billion. Wells Fargo also expects World Cup‑related advertising revenue of roughly $800 million, up from a prior estimate of just over $600 million.

Roku Acquisition Synergies

The pending acquisition of Roku is a central element of the bullish outlook. J.P. Morgan believes combining Tubi with Roku’s streaming platform will create the largest free, ad‑supported streaming‑TV operator and improve Fox’s growth profile. Wells Fargo estimates the deal could generate about $300 million in advertising‑revenue synergies within roughly two years, driven by higher pricing and fill rates on Roku Channel inventory, homescreen advertising, and better monetisation of third‑party streaming inventory.

Valuation Perspective

J.P. Morgan noted that Fox’s pro‑forma valuation remains below the level implied by its $82 price target, leaving room for a rerating as investors view the combined company as a scaled connected‑TV platform with first‑party data and expanded advertising opportunities.