Goldman: AI‑Fueled S&P Rally Signals Weaker Returns

S&P 500 posted 10% YTD gain with 14 record highs, tech stocks contributed 85% of the rise.
Goldman’s Momentum factor jumped 25% in three months, while hedge fund leverage and exposure to momentum reached five‑year highs.
Historical analysis shows similar 20%+ momentum spikes near all‑time highs preceded softer equity returns in the following months.
Consensus EPS forecasts for 2026‑27 rose 8% YTD, driven by AI capex expectations and higher energy prices.