Overview
Goldman Sachs economists, in an October 22 research note, observed that employment growth in U.S. industries most exposed to artificial intelligence (AI) has fallen about 10,000 jobs below its long‑term trend during the past three months.
AI Impact on Hiring
The note highlights a statistically significant positive correlation between AI adoption and unemployment in service sectors, together with a weaker negative link between AI adoption and overall employment growth. Despite this, hiring gains in AI‑related construction projects have largely offset the shortfall.
Layoff Trends
AI‑related layoff announcements have dropped sharply from their spring‑time peak, indicating a moderation of earlier concerns.
Productivity Forecast and Workforce Displacement
Goldman Sachs projects that AI could raise economy‑wide productivity by 15 %. Under this scenario, roughly 9 % of the U.S. workforce may be temporarily displaced from existing roles during the transition, and slower hiring could add an extra employment headwind of about 3 %.
Historical evidence cited in the research shows that each 1 % increase in technology‑driven productivity typically lifts the unemployment rate by 0.3‑0.4 percentage points, with the effect dissipating after roughly two years.
Occupational Disruption Evidence
An analysis of 25 occupations previously disrupted by technological change found an average employment decline of 25 % over a five‑year horizon, with job losses rather than reduced recruitment accounting for most of the reduction.
AI Adoption Rate
Only 23 % of U.S. establishments currently incorporate AI into regular workflows, suggesting that the majority of the potential productivity gains remain unrealised.
Outlook
The baseline outlook anticipates a gradual rise in AI‑related labour disruption rather than an abrupt shock, assuming continued economic growth. A resilient economy could enable workers to transition gradually, whereas a downturn could accelerate automation and layoffs.