Goldman Sachs Flags Supply Shock, Delayed Dollar

Goldman Sachs notes a muted supply shock from Middle East disruptions, reducing expected impact on the U.S. dollar.
The bank revised down global growth forecasts, especially outside the U.S., widening growth divergence that currently supports the dollar.
Activity trackers remain resilient, suggesting inventories and flexible supply chains may cushion cyclical currencies, possibly leading to over‑optimism on the dollar.
Goldman warns of upside commodity price risks and tighter European energy supply, which could affect current‑account balances and currency valuations.