Goldman Sachs Lowers India 2026 Inflation Forecast

Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 India inflation forecast by 10 basis points to 4.5% YoY, citing lower oil and gas price outlook.
March CPI rose to 3.4% YoY, matching GS estimate, driven by vegetable price surge of about 1 percentage point to 3.8% YoY.
Core inflation held at 3.4% YoY in March; core goods inflation edged up 10 bps to 2.1% YoY due to tobacco taxes.
GS projects April inflation at 3.8% YoY, food prices up 1% MoM implying 4.8% YoY food inflation, and oil premium at $10/barrel.