Goldman Sachs Lowers US Spending Forecast

Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 US consumer discretionary cash‑inflow growth forecast to 4.2% from 5.1% (Jan).
Disposable personal income growth forecast lowered to 5.0% for 2026, with savings rate reduced to 4.5% from 5.6%.
Rising oil prices add over 50 bps head‑wind to aggregate consumer spending and about 135 bps for the bottom‑quintile.
Goldman still expects two 25‑bp Fed rate cuts in 2026 despite a somewhat hawkish FOMC stance.