Goldman Sachs cut its 3‑month USD/BRL target to 4.90, 6‑month and 12‑month to 5.00, down from 5.20‑5.30.
Real outperformed YTD, driven by stronger terms of trade, risky‑asset recovery and high carry comparable only to Colombian peso.
Goldman expects outperformance to persist if energy prices stay high and risk sentiment remains firm, but warns of reversal risk.
The bank now forecasts a 25‑bp rate cut at next week’s meeting and suggests Chilean‑peso‑funded real longs for risk mitigation.