Goldman Sachs Sees Shrinking Supply Shock, Delayed Dollar Weakness

Goldman Sachs notes that the USD outlook is being shaped by a shrinking supply shock from Middle East disruptions, limiting expected weakness.
The bank revised down global growth forecasts, with sharper cuts outside the U.S., especially in Asia‑Pacific economies excluding China, supporting the dollar.
Goldman highlights that higher‑frequency activity data remain resilient, suggesting inventories and flexible supply chains may cushion commodity price risks for now.
It warns that limited shipping traffic and early European supply pressures keep upside commodity price risks elevated, potentially impacting current‑account balances.