Goldman Sachs: Shrinking Supply Shock Delays Dollar Weakness

Goldman Sachs notes a shrinking Middle East supply shock is delaying broad US dollar depreciation, keeping the dollar relatively strong.
The bank cuts global growth forecasts, especially outside the US and in Asia‑Pacific (excluding China), widening growth divergence that supports the dollar.
Goldman warns of upside commodity‑price risks and higher energy costs affecting current‑account balances, while European currencies may underprice tighter energy supply.
The note suggests Goldman may be too cautious on cyclical currencies like the AUD and too optimistic on the dollar if supply proves more elastic.